Uneven Global Vaccination Threatens Economic Rebound, O.E.C.D. Warns

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China, the world’s second biggest economy, was forecast to grow 8.5 percent this year, before slowing to a 5.8 percent pace in 2022. Asked about the impact from the potential collapse of the debt-riddled property giant Evergrande, Ms. Boone said the agency expected China to cope with any fallout.

And despite a terrible outbreak of the Delta variant in India earlier this year, the economy was expected to remain largely on track with 9.7 percent growth, before cooling to 7.9 percent next year.

By contrast, countries with lower vaccination rates sharply lagged others, the organization said. In Indonesia, which has vaccinated just 16 percent of the population, the economy was expected to grow 3.7 percent, one of the slowest rates among O.E.C.D. countries. Russia, with immunization rates around 30 percent, will grow at a slower-than-expected 2.7 percent pace.

But the robust numbers within the richest economies masked lingering troubles, with the recovery benefiting people unevenly.

Growth in the United States returned to prepandemic levels, but employment remains lower than before the economic restrictions. In Europe, which deployed billions to shield its businesses and workers from mass unemployment and bankruptcies at the height of the crisis, employment has been largely preserved.

And the virus and lagging vaccination rates continue to throw a wrench into the smooth functioning of the global economy, snarling supply chains, the O.E.C.D. said.

“There are some parts that haven’t left factories in countries with virus outbreaks,” Ms. Boone said. As a result, numerous companies are running out of inventory and slowing production, which in turn is pushing prices higher for a range of goods, but the surge should fade once supply chain bottlenecks fade.

Inflation will ease quicker from the current alarming levels if vaccination programs speed up.

“If we continue to vaccinate and adapt better to living with the virus, supply will begin to normalize and this pressure will fade,” Ms. Boone said. “But for that, we have to vaccinate more people.”

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